What Happened In Virginia
“What happens in Virginia will, in large part, determine what happens in 2022, 2024, and on.”
Vice President Kamala Harris, Oct 29, 2021
All eyes were on the Governor’s race in Virginia Tuesday night as a reliable bellwether of what we can expect in the race for Democrats to hold on to Congress next year, and the White House in 2024. Virginia, a state that Biden won by 10 percentage points, and which has reliably been trending blue for a decade, elected Republican Glenn Youngkin 52pp to 48pp. In this off-year election there was record turnout, and white women were once again at the center of the story.
While Democrat Terry McAuliffe campaigned against Trumpism, Youngkin’s strategy was to thread the needle, embracing Trump supporters while simultaneously building a coalition of 2020 Trump defectors and independents. In the last several weeks, Youngkin drove up support by successfully using critical race theory as a race-based wedge to play on the rising feelings of social insignificance and fears of a changing America among white parents, launching a campaign called “Parents Matter.” That strategy, along with concerns about inflation, Biden’s falling favorability, and perceptions that Democrats are moving too far left, was successful in drawing in white women voters, particularly from the suburbs.
According to CNN exit polls, there was a 15 point swing to the right among white women voters, who made up 33% of the vote in 2020 and 38% in 2021. There was a 14 point swing among suburban voters, who made up 60% of the vote in both 2020 and 2021. Youngkin made these gains while also driving up turnout in rural areas.
The use of critical race theory to move moderate white women did not come as a surprise to Galvanize Action. While our direct impact work has been rooted in the Rust Belt, our research is conducted more broadly to gain a deeper understanding of voting behavior in rural, small town, and suburban America. We have identified racial resentment as the factor most highly correlated with voting behavior for moderate white women. Knowing race and culture wars would play a big part in upcoming elections, we undertook additional research to explore which grievance-based disinformation narratives were most persuasive to which segments of white women voters, and found that suburban white women are disproportionately sensitive to narratives on critical race theory, cancel culture, and white privilege.
This spring we conducted a deep canvass on critical race theory with our partners and volunteers to better understand the threat. In those conversations with moderate women voters, we heard how successfully this nefarious wedge was being used to trigger racial resentment and fear of social insignificance. You can listen for yourself here; please be aware this clip contains overt racism that may be upsetting.
After hearing what we were up against, we dug deeper for solutions to take into 2022. Just this week, we received new research results on critical race theory which provide us with the psychographic intel we use to craft successful persuasion messages to inoculate against politics designed to further polarize us and threaten our increasingly fragile democracy. We’ve had proven success in moving women in rural, small town, and suburban America on topics ranging from COVID to immigration, to the Texas abortion ban.
Our early research shows that moderate white women are more likely to oppose teaching the ongoing effects of racism and discrimination in school. This group places a high value on authority, in-group care, and purity. Concern for their in-group comes to life when we see that they are also more likely to be mothers of sons—fear that their white son may feel insignificant or worse, be told he is “wrong” is a real concern held by many moderate white mothers. One respondent summed up their complex feelings about the topic by sharing:
“I feel that if we keep talking about racism and discrimination that it will never truly be in the past. However, if kids are not taught about the harm of the topics then it may continue. I’m on the fence.”
It’s beyond doubt that our country is balancing on the razor’s edge and that moderate white women will continue to play a critical role in our collective future. If you are feeling dread and anxiety about ‘22 and the re-emergence of Trump, know that there is something you can do about it. These swing voters are, by their very definition, moveable, and we have our finger on the pulse of how to move them. We know our work can make a difference. In 2020, more white women overall chose Trump, and by a bigger margin than in 2016. But where we focused our efforts, the opposite was true. White women in Michigan and Wisconsin moved significantly toward Biden, and this shift proved critical to his victory. We are doing rigorous, innovative, research-based work right now to be ready for the key races in 2022 and to build the durable majority for progress we’ll need for 2024 and beyond. We can do this. Together.
