Start the Countdown
We’re officially less than a year away from the 2024 election. As we prepare for what is certain to be a busy year, let’s examine the political landscape Galvanize Action will be operating in. We are likely looking at a presidential rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. This presents a serious challenge for keeping moderate women engaged: many dislike both options. In a recent Audience Understanding Survey from the One For All Committee, we saw that a significant amount of women are choosing a candidate because they think he is the lesser of two evils, not out of genuine support.
Biden Supporters:
- “I am not a fan of Biden and prefer he not run. It is time to let someone younger run for President. However, I do not want Trump as President again so my vote would represent an anti-Trump vote.”
- “Although I don’t particularly want Joe Biden to be president again, I know for a fact that I definitely do not want Donald Trump to be president again”
- “I can’t stand Donald Trump so if Joe Biden is my only choice I’ll do what I can to make sure Trump is not elected.”
Trump Supporters:
- “Joe Biden was worse than Donald Trump. Both are bad.”
- “Donald Trump has more sense than Joe Biden but both [are] pretty terrible”
- “I really do not think either of them are a good choice but would rather see Trump in office than Biden”
- “Both are undesirable. My vote for Trump is an anti-Biden vote, not a pro-Trump vote.”
This same research suggests that the election will be uncomfortably close once again. When One For All asked white women who they would vote for in the 2024 presidential election if it were held today (on Sept 25, 2023), they were divided but leaned toward Trump (39% Trump and 36% Biden).
Compared to 2020 vote choice, support for Biden is lower among Trusting Liberals and Uncertain Individualists, and Trump support is higher. However, Trump support is lower among Traditionalist Conservatives than it was three years ago although their Biden support has remained flat. This underscores the importance of ongoing connection with all of these voter segments to keep them engaged and interrupt anti-democratic strategies that pull them away from progress.
This is a critical moment and the stakes are high. Our nation is polarized, people are feeling genuine economic pain, the culture wars being waged are causing serious harm as they divide us further, and most people do not feel like anyone is coming to save them, least of all the government. There is no magic solution here, but there is hope!
In 2020, just about 44,000 votes were all that separated a Biden victory from an electoral college tie. That narrowest of margins changed the fate of our country. Galvanize Action has identified 44 million moderate women; 44 million opportunities to build support for policies and leaders that can help us all thrive. We don’t need to reach all of those women, just a small fraction is mathematically enough to secure meaningful change in our communities and progress for our country.
In our experience, folks need to feel seen and that their struggles are understood. When we genuinely talk to people in the language that resonates with their values and worldview, more of them will choose to join us to protect our democracy and fundamental rights. This will continue to be our approach throughout 2024 as we double down on reaching moderate white women with messages about the economy, culture wars, and democracy.
