Countdown to the Midterms

The midterms are in just 14 days. The races are tightening and early voting has begun. Here’s how things are shaping up in the Rust Belt: 

• The economy continues to rise in salience (it’s the #1 issue for likely voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan) while we’re seeing abortion drop as a top concern for our audience of movable white women. Abortion now ranks fourth overall behind the economy, healthcare, and crime for white women across Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio (although it’s #3 in Wisconsin which has banned abortions post-Dobbs).
• Crime, immigration, and border security are growing concerns due to racially-coded fear mongering. This is particularly relevant in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where both Fetterman and Barnes are being framed as soft or liberal on crime.
• The Cook Political Report moved Pennsylvania from “lean Democrat” back to “toss-up,” identifying this as the tipping point race that may determine control of the Senate. Fetterman’s health has been center stage as Oz has challenged his fitness to lead—a subject that will be in the spotlight as the two debate tonight.
• Cook lists the Wisconsin race as a toss-up, but FiveThirtyEight’s statistical analysis considers it “Lean-R.” As in Pennsylvania, ads emphasizing the economy and crime are driving Wisconsin voters to the right. A significant percentage of voters have expressed dissatisfaction with both candidates; how these folks end up casting their votes may well determine the outcome.
• While there is no Senate race in Michigan, voters there will be tackling abortion access head-on via Proposition 3, the Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative. Galvanize Action has been connecting with Michigan women (and women in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio) since May with ads on reproductive freedom like this one.

Our messaging has increased support for abortion, built opposition to abortion bans, and moved over 78% of our audience to say they would only support public officials who are committed to protecting reproductive freedom. This increased support has had an impact, making midterm races as close as they now are. It has not, however, meant that they have become single-issue voters. Our research has made clear that we have to connect with our audience on reproductive freedom AND the economy, which is exactly what we’ve been doing.

Watch all of our ads on reproductive freedom, the economy, democracy, and more in the Art & Science of Persuasion Playbook, and then come on back after the midterms as we make sense of the election results together.